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1. Hazard, chance of bad consequences,
loss, etc.
2. Expose to chance of injury or loss
If you want to accelerate your success
or make a quantum leap towards your most important goals, it
is useful (and often necessary) to take risks.
However, there is a huge difference
between throwing oneself out of an airplane and jumping out
of the same airplane with some training and a parachute on
your back.
This points to the four stages I like
to go through with myself and my clients in working with
risk:
1. Identification
2. Assessment
3. Adjustment
4. Decision
Here's how it all works...
1. Identify the potentially useful (or
unavoidable) risk
How do we know that an activity or
course of action we are considering engaging in is risky?
Usually, it is by a feeling of relative unease or discomfort
that accompanies thinking about it.
Sometimes, the feeling comes from a
task that is being imposed on us,even if it is made to sound
relatively innocuous. ("I know - let's get 598 of our
friends together and all ride into the valley of death -
it'll be fun!" :-)
At other times, we actively seek out
risks by asking how we could get where we want to go (or
away from where we don't want to be) faster than traditional
means would take us.
2. Evaluate the balance between risk
and reward
Most systems for evaluating risk are
based on probabilities - how likely we think it is that we
will succeed or fail. The simplest system I have ever come
up with for evaluating risk is based on generating two
numbers, both on a scale from 1 to 10.
The first number represents the
potential upside, or reward - i.e. how much of a positive
impact, on a scale from 1 to 10, could taking the action or
course of action have on your situation?
The second number represents the
potential downside, or risk - i.e. how much of a negative
impact, on a scale from 1 to 10, could taking the action or
course of action have on your situation?
Here's the magic formula:
Potential Reward - Potential Risk =
Risk/Reward Index
A positive Risk/Reward Index would
suggest that a course of action might be worth taking; a
negative Risk/Reward Index would suggest that a course of
action might not be worth taking. (A Risk/Reward Index of
zero would suggest (to me) that some decision criteria other
than risk/reward might be worth introducing in to the mix.)
3. Adjust the possible course of
action to decrease the potential risk and increase the
potential reward
Mitigating risk traditionally involves
searching for ways to decrease the potential downside of
taking the course of action. This can be done in three
ways:
a. Limit the risk (i.e. putting a set
time, money, or other resource limit on it)
b. Share the risk (i.e. finding other
people who will help carry the burden of risk, usually in
exchange for a share of the potential reward)
c. Offset the risk (i.e. making a
smaller bet AGAINST your desired outcome, with insurance
being one of the most common examples).
To increase the potential upside, up
the reward. You can do this by "widening the game" to
include additional rewards that connect to other parts of
your life and/or by "upping the stakes" - playing a bigger
game for a bigger payoff.
4. Decide whether or not you are going
to "take the risk"
Dr. Roger Lichie of the Bristol Cancer
Help Centre suggests his patients evaluate the risk of
alternative treatment by first gathering as much information
as they can about both their disease and all available
options for treatment. He then suggests they sit down and
allow their minds to go quiet and tune in to their bodies
until they get either a definite yes, a definite no, or no
signal at all, which can be thought of as a "maybe".
In Lichie's system, Yes means yes, No
means no, and Maybe means no - in other words, unless you
are sure that a potentially risky treatment is for you, it's
best not to take the risk.
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